It’s hard to be confident of much this WNBA season outside of the knowing that the Liberty have a scary roster and that Minnesota is still the best team in the league. Previously reliable teams like the Sun and Aces are having tough transitions to new eras, while the high number of injuries have kept teams like the Fever stuck in neutral. With that in mind, the Washington Mystics, in a season that looked destined to be historically terrible, are holding onto the final playoff spot at 11-12, with just 2.5 games separating them from 4th place. As we enter the second half of the season how much should we be adjusting our expectations?
To start, a lot of credit needs to go to Jamila Wideman in nailing her first draft soon after taking over from the Thibault dynasty. The Mystics are the tenth team since 2000 (cutting out first year/expansion nonsense) that has picked two players in the same draft who went on to earn at least 1.5 win shares in their rookie season, a bar All-Stars Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have both cleared. The instant success of Citron and Iriafen makes it even more disappointing that sixth overall pick Georgia Amoore tore her ACL before the season started.
While Citron and Iriafen have raised expectations for the future, the question of current expectations is still unanswered. While both players are solid on the offensive end, they are not carriers of a team or generators of offense on their own. Among guards with at least 10 games played this season, Citron is sixth in the WNBA with 69 percent of her field goals coming from assists. The Mystics are still in desperate need of a superstar who can carry the team through tough times like Elena Delle Donne did in their championship-winning seasons.
Speaking of Delle Donne, the other area where the Mystics struggle is three-point shooting. While the WNBA still allows for much greater variation in gameplan and a bigger role for post players than the NBA, the ability to spread a defense out is still key. When the Mystics won their title in 2019 they had eight players who attempted at least 2 three pointers a game with six of them shooting better than league average (33.8%) from 3. Of those six, three were forwards, Delle Donne (43%), Emma Meesseman (42.2%), and Tianna Hawkins (36.3%).
This year the Mystics have just five players averaging 2 three pointers a game and of those players only two are shooting above league average (33.2%), Citron (36.4%) and Sug Sutton (42.4%). Unsurprisingly they are dead last in the league in three pointers made. The lack of spacing makes things difficult and while they often have post players around the paint, their 26 percent offensive rebound rate significantly trails fellow forward-heavy teams like the Dallas Wings (30.8%) and Chicago Sky (29.5%).
The Mystics’ only saving grace offensively is a league leading .277 free throws made per field goal attempt, with Brittany Sykes (5th), Shakira Austin (11th) and Iriafen (15th) all in the top 15 in the league in shooting fouls drawn. But free throws can only take you so far, with the Mystics still in ninth in the league in true shooting percentage and effective field goal rate.
Defensively, like the last few seasons, the Mystics have been fine but not good, coming in seventh in the WNBA in defensive rating. Unlike on the offensive end, the forward heavy look gives them a great defensive rebounding rate (3rd), but they weirdly allow a lot of made shots within 3 ft (71.7%). Mostly the Mystics make their opponents play like them by guarding the three point line and only allowing opponents to shoot 30.8 percent from three.
Overall, this year’s Mystics team does not look that different from their post-championship era, with one crucial exception, their youth. Here are the average ages of the players with at least 15 minutes per game since winning the WNBA title: 27.3,28.8,28,27.9,27.1, and 25.4. Dropping two years of average age in a single offseason without missing a beat is incredible. However, it still leaves the Mystics well short of their overall goal of being a championship contending team instead of a mere playoff contender. While they’re certainly a more interesting team than expected, it cannot be said that they are good.
Unfortunately, this offseason brings with it a world of uncertainty with the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in October. However, with a young roster with two starters locked in the Mystics should be in good position to maneuver through the new landscape and continue building out their championship roster.
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