Last Friday I did a run down of the young Nationals on the offensive side of the ball, breaking things down by their 2026 status based on their results so far. Now it’s the pitchers’ turn.
Prominent Role Next Year
MacKenzie Gore (87 ERA-, 78 FIP-) My apologies to MacKenzie Gore for being too slow in writing this so that his disastrous start on Sunday is included in these numbers. Things are unchanged from my report in June. Gore is one of only two Nationals pitchers with an arsenal that grades out well by both Baseball Prospectus’ PitchPro (-0.59 runs) and StuffPro (-0.25 runs). Probably the only change from June is now Gore’s ERA and FIP are better aligned with his pitch grades instead of being a Cy Young contender. All signs point to Gore’s season being legit, with Baseball Prospectus’ overall pitcher measure DRA-, which like DRC+ for hitters focuses on a player’s expected contributions instead of their results, showing Gore 30 percentage points better than league average. In any case Gore should provide a solid base for the Nationals to build their rotation around as they look to better this disastrous 2025 rotation.
Jose A. Ferrer (123 ERA-, 77 FIP-) This placement might be controversial because of how bad his ERA has been and the narrative disaster an -0.18 win probability added (WPA) and 14 meltdowns is. However, by every other measure Ferrer has been good this year and with a bullpen this thin you can only be so picky. Ferrer is the other Nats pitcher who grades out well by both PitchPro (-0.69) and StuffPro (-0.28) and he has a great DRA- of 73. You read that right, as hard as it is to believe, by Baseball Prospectus’ stuff and deserved rates Ferrer is equal to MacKenzie Gore. A big part of that is because he’s the one reliever in the Nationals bullpen who doesn’t take it as a mission to walk at least one batter per outing. Hopefully Ferrer is able to figure out how to be more consistent on the mound, reduce the nightmare outings and get his ERA in line with the other stats to show he can be relied upon as a shutdown reliever in 2026.
Brad Lord (84 ERA-, 87 FIP-) Yeah I don’t really understand this one either. Somehow Lord is one of only two Nationals pitchers this year with an ERA-, FIP- and DRA- below 100, with a DRA- of 91. StuffPro and PitchPro are not impressed with his arsenal although that might be because he’s throwing a very pedestrian fastball 58 percent of the time. His slider at -1.1 runs by StuffPro is one of the best pitches on the team, but he only throws it 18 percent of the time. With some injuries he’s getting another chance to start and that should give us an idea of whether he slots into the bullpen or the back of the rotation in 2026. There’s a good chance he’s a one-year wonder, but the Nats do not have the pitching depth to bet on that.
We Might Have Some Innings For You
Jake Irvin (111 ERA-, 126 FIP-) Technically Irvin shouldn’t be in here because he’s 28 years old already. Which some of you may have known but I was shocked by because I just assumed he was the same age as everyone else who came up around the same time. The results here are not great and at 28 I think you’re running out of room to project future development. He’s in this category because last season he had a DRA- of 95 suggesting he has a higher ceiling than his 2025 results. And compared to the other guys around him he hasn’t been that bad as his 110 DRA- this year ranks 4th amongst the pitchers on this list.
Mitchell Parker (121 ERA-, 111 FIP-) Parker’s ERA- and FIP- somehow undersell how bad things are. His strikeout rate has cratered going from 20.6 percent in 2024 to 14.8 percent this year and he’s helpfully paired that with a significant walk rate increase from 6.7 percent to 8.7 percent. Put together that gives him a DRA- of a putrid 130, worst among the pitchers on this list. The good news is that PitchPro (0.23) and StuffPro (0.46) say he has the worst arsenal of the pitchers here. Oh wait sorry that was also bad news. Like Riley Adams on the hitters list, Parker’s only chance is to be saved by the complete lack of depth and bigger needs elsewhere.
Happy Trails
Jackson Rutledge (152 ERA-, 153 FIP-) Results-wise this has not been a good season for Rutledge but there is a hint of a possibility of something more here. His DRA- of 114 is a little better than the ERA and FIP but still puts him below average in MLB. His StuffPro of -0.35 is intriguing however it’s also contradicted by a PitchPro of 0.17. His big problem is that he's getting hammered when batters make contact, with a opposing slugging on contact (SLGCON) of .705. Now that the guy who drafted him is out of the organization the Nats will likely no longer feel obligated to try to make this waste of a 1st round pick work. However, if Rutledge can bring his results more in line with his expectations to end this year he might just sneak into a bullpen role in 2026. Right now I'd say that's unlikely.
Zach Brzycky (180 ERA-, 153 FIP-) Brzycky has only 20 innings on the season so there could be some small sample size wonkiness going on, although that does represent 1/3rd of an average reliever workload these days. Like Rutledge, his DRA- is also better but still bad at 121. Unlike Rutledge Brzycky does not have much going in StuffPro at only -0.12 runs and his PitchPro is even worse at 0.32 runs. He does not seem to be fooling batters much as they make loud contact against him with an average exit velocity of 91.8 MPH and a SLGCON of .746, both worst on the team. Similar to Robert Hassell III and Daylen Lile on the offensive side, he’ll stick around the organization for as long as he has options, but seems unlikely to net a bigger role here.
Cole Henry (87 ERA-, 127 FIP-) A long prospect pedigree and a decent start paired with a still good ERA means some folks will be shocked to find him down here. As the bearer of bad news the 127 FIP- unfortunately spoils both the party and what’s to come from his deserved rates and StuffPro. Henry’s 123 DRA- is only better than Mitchell Parker’s among this group and is driven by his 11 percent walk rate. Like the last two pitchers on this list he has a strong disagreement between his PitchPro (0.45) and StuffPro (-0.21), mostly related to StuffPro’s love of sliders. There’s enough evidence here to suggest that the good ERA is a fluke and that long term Henry will not be able to fit in as contributor to the bullpen. Like Brzycky he’ll stick around the organization as long as he has options, but I would not be penciling him in for a 2026 bullpen role unless he makes some sudden changes or things go horribly wrong in the offseason.
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