With Opening Day always comes optimism. The feeling you get from a fresh season without the harsh reality of a win-loss record is inescapable. For a franchise that last had a winning season seven years ago, the optimism is still there even if it’s in a different form. I am not delusional enough to say I think this could be a playoff contending team, or even a top 25 team in baseball, but I am optimistic about what I’ve seen from the new front office and coaching staff this spring.
One of the key concerns I had after Mike Rizzo and Davey and his merry band of morons were fired last summer was that they had kept the Nationals stuck so far behind the stats development cycle that they would never be able to catch up. In the last 10 years the development smart teams think about the game and the actions they take has undergone a rapid acceleration for a game that followed the Branch Rickey model for 70 years.
The first stats era started with Moneyball and ended around 2010-12 as the introduction of statistics into the overall front office process. This era was focused on high-level numbers similar to ones folks were familiar with like OBP to batting average, or FIP to ERA, as well as some basic all-encompassing value stats like WAR. By 2012 every front office had a numbers guy who would provide input on player acquisitions alongside traditional scouting at varying mixes. This was the level Rizzo entered at and never seemed to leave.
Further development was initially slow, the next wave to 2015 saw teams move beyond acquisition and use stats for advantages within the season. Stats were used to gain more advantage on the field with defensive positioning, prescribing specific pitches or zones to throw in. And in player tracking with focus on more specific stats like strikeout and walk rate, BABIP, etc.
With the introduction of Statcast in 2015 things started to move fast. We quickly saw weirder strategies like the Rays’ Opener, along with significantly increasing emphasis on velocity for pitchers and launch angle for hitters. As we entered the 2020s the smarter teams started to be able to build a prospect by even more specific metrics like spin rate, vertical attack angle, or exit velocity, that could be molded into a reliable player. Teams knew the exact stats they could develop and had a cohesive strategy from draft day through the minors to maximize the talent available to them.
My concern was that the post-Rizzo Nationals would be a lot like the Mike DeBartolo Nationals, stuck around 2018 ways of thinking, significantly advanced from what they were before but still hopelessly behind. To me the draft and trade deadline showed us a front office who had a general idea of what they should be trying to do, but no practical experience to actually implement a cohesive strategy. The prospects they acquired were a confusing mix of different skill sets that would be tough to develop as a group.
While the Paul Toboni front office has not had enough acquisitions to form a definitive pattern on the player acquisition side, we’ll have to wait for their first draft for that, there is an area they have shown they’re quickly jumping up to be on the cutting edge: teaching.
One of the smartest people writing about baseball today, Joshua Rodrigues, has written a lot recently about how teams have started to emphasize the importance of teaching at the major league level. That too often player development is thought of as something that happens in the minor leagues and that major league coaches are just there for some basic platitudes and advice. This was clearly the approach of Martinez who only could offer camels, going 1-0, and the same hitting cliches your dad told you 30 years ago.
Rodrigues first caught my attention on this topic with this post about the Dodgers after they won their second of back-to-back World Series. As much as Martinez preached about “the little things” the Dodgers were actually doing something about it, finding teachable moments wherever possible to help improve their player’s understanding of the game. He followed up this winter with another great post with a specific example from Quentin Berry of the Cubs of helping players understand what they’re being asked to do before they practice it and showing how it applies to the game.
I’m optimistic about the Nationals because I’ve seen multiple signs that they’ve adopted this approach. Spencer Nusbaum had a great rundown of all the new toys and data available to the players now, but the big takeaway from me was this quote from Jake Irvin, “The attitude towards all these changes have been fantastic. Guys are bought in.”
And Irvin is not the only one to express that sentiment, early in spring Mark Zuckerman shared a great quote from Drew Millas “There’s a lot of intention, there’s a lot of direction for everybody. There’s a clear mission that everybody has that general feel to.” Zuckerman followed up with some highlights of the Nationals teaching approach around the new ABS system and baserunning. The Nats used a practice session with ABS to highlight their challenge strategy (catchers and hitters only) and give the hitters some practice with their strike zone judgement. The baserunning drill was done more efficiently, multiple runners at a time, and emphasized specific actions they wanted the players to take, rounding a corner tightly.
Overall efficiency seems to be a big emphasis with the new regime as Jessica Camerato highlighted the “Wally express”, a large golf cart that quickly shuttled players from drill-to-drill with Robert Hassell III noting the team last year often fell behind schedule without it. It’s another example of the team walking-the-walk instead of just talking-the-talk when it comes to acting with intention and focusing on the little things.
The most encouraging thing I read this spring though was from Zuckerman’s first Q&A with manager Blake Butera. Butera gave some encouraging answers about his surprise at how eager the players were for a change and how quickly they were committed. The money quote, to me, is this, “I don’t think you necessarily need veterans to hold players accountable. A lot of these guys know what it should look like. And if they don’t, it’s our job as a staff to show them what it should look like and hold them accountable. And then eventually get to a point where they know what they’re capable of, what it should look like, and then they hold each other accountable.” That sounds like he could have ripped it right out of Rodrigues’ posts.
Overall, I think the team acknowledges that they are not miracle workers in this regard. They haven’t had the time to bring in the types of players they know they can mold and are doing their best to help the guys who are here. Teaching has its limits and I think that manifested in the MacKenzie Gore trade and Robert Hassell III and Dylan Crews demotions. The Nationals are not going to be a good team in 2026, but you’ll want to pay close attention to see the impact the new guys are hoping to make.
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