Those Clowns in the Bullpen Did It Again

For most of this season when I’ve written it’s been about the Nationals offense and for good reasons. First, they’re a lot more fun to watch and second, there are players on offense you can reasonably expect to be here next year. The same cannot be said for the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. However, the absolutely putrid results this past week call for further examination. How can a front office and coaching staff that have turned Keibert Ruiz, Luis García Jr., and Curtis Mead into key members of the most powerful lineup in baseball fail so badly at creating one good relief pitcher?

It is not for lack of trying. Five of the eight pitchers who have made up the Nationals bullpen the majority of the season - Brad Lord, Clayton Beeter, Gus Varland, Mitchell Parker, Orlando Ribalta, Paxton Shultz, PJ Poulin, and Richard Lovelady – have made at least one significant change to their pitch mix this season.

The overall theme of the changes has been, stop throwing your fastball, and for good reason, because the Nationals bullpen has some of the worst fastballs in baseball. Most have started throwing their existing breaking ball more, while Lord and Parker consolidated their offerings into sweepers (entirely new for Lord).

You’ll notice there are a couple pitchers missing from this list and that’s worth looking into a bit more. Lovelady has not made much of a change compared to the last season he pitched significant innings in, 2024. That might be because of his weird acquisition path, being pulled from the Nats 10 days before the season started, then coming back mid-April and immediately becoming a key member of the bullpen. The window for significant changes was likely lost.

For Varland and Beeter it might just be because they have fastballs that grade well by StuffPro. Beeter pairs his with an excellent slider that has made him a model of consistency with a 97 DRC- (deserved runs created, with league average at 100 and lower being better) in 25 innings pitched, exactly the same as last year. Sadly, that slightly above average performance also makes him the best traditional reliever in the Nationals bullpen and the only one above average (Lord is at 82 DRC- but I don’t fully count him yet). If Beeter had a normal role for his talent, holding down the 7^th or occasionally the 8^th, he wouldn’t even draw concern.

Varland also has a slider that grades well by StuffPro, although not as great as Beeter’s. And yet all of that great stuff has yielded a 6.25 ERA, 129 DRA-, and a demotion to AAA last Thursday after giving up 5 runs to the Phillies in the 9^th inning. The problem for Varland, and the rest of the bullpen, is exposed by Baseball Prospectus’ arsenal metrics.

Despite how difficult Varland’s pitches are to hit in a vacuum, he’s not throwing them in a vacuum. Subtle clues like his mechanics, the way he finishes the pitch, and its initial ballflight can all be used by the hitter to know whether the fastball or slider is coming. Overall, Varland is very predictable, an estimated 80.1 percent of his pitches are likely to be recognized before the hitter’s decision point (league average is 67.5). On top of that, the movement spread of his pitches is also low at 87.4 (league average is 103.5, higher is better). This means hitters not only can guess which pitch is coming, they also have a good idea where it’s going to end up.

For context, Beeter has a similarly high pitch type probability of 84.5, throwing only two pitches will do that, but his movement spread is right at league average, at 102.1. So, while his pitches are similarly identifiable, they are not as easily squared up for hard contact.

It’s a similar story for the Nationals relievers who have made changes to their pitch mix too. While they’re throwing tougher pitches more frequently as viewed by StuffPro, it has not made things much harder on the hitters they are facing. The Nats have seen no substantial improvement in pitch type probability or surprise factor, how unexpected a pitch’s movement is based on what a hitter likely expects (league average is 101, higher is better).

Poulin is the only reliever who has improved in both, but he’s still below average. Shultz has a decent surprise factor, but that’s because his two main pitches are a fastball and a cutter, limiting his ability to get whiffs and strikeouts. Overall, the Nats relievers lack the specific, repeatable skills that separate a guy with some good stuff from a reliable major leaguer. The Nationals have found the limit of how far better information and improved training can get them.

It’s hard to say how much blame the Nats front office deserves here. Obviously, they were not expecting the team to be good this year and did not expect the quality of the bullpen to be a pressing concern. Most of the bullpen is a random assortment of Mike Rizzo guys, you cannot expect them to fix every piece of flotsam left behind. On the other hand, the players they did bring in, Varland, Schultz, Lovelady, all suffer from the same issues.

I don’t think you can lay blame on Blake Butera as his bullpen management has been generally good. After leading the league routinely under Davey Martinez, they’re 24^th this season in reliever appearances on zero days rest. And with their high number of bulk relievers (not counting Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell), they rank much better in my made-up reliever usage efficiency (innings pitched divided by appearances) at 1.27 innings, well above the league worst 1.02 innings under Martinez.

My only quibble is that the one pitcher who has shown encouraging numbers, Poulin, was confusingly being used as the designated opener until last week. Since then, he’s entered as a reliever three times and given up one run in four innings, getting two holds and a save. Why was he being wasted in the lowest leverage situations possible? However, it’s hard to say how much of that was Butera’s or the front office’s decision.

The good news for the Nationals is that they are above .500 despite such putrid relief pitching and there is a long list of relief pitchers that can be an upgrade over what they have. I know the front office is afraid of making a big, feel-good trade and watching the team implode down the stretch, thus missing the opportunity to have added to their prospect pool. But that’s all the more reason to strike now. The level of reliever that could help the Nats will be essentially free and if the team swoons in July they can make the expected trades for prospects with the fans knowing they tried to support a contender first. After six seasons in the basement, a little goodwill goes a long way.