The MLB trade deadline has come and gone and the Nats traded pretty much everything of value that wasn’t nailed down. The good news is they did not try to trade CJ Abrams, Cade Cavalli, or James Wood, so there’s some hope the Nationals would still like to capture an elusive winning season in the 2020s. The return they’ve gotten even suggests that they might be looking to be a serious contender without gaping wounds to start the season next year. Let’s break it down.
Curtis Mead to the Red Sox for LHP Connelly Early
This was the first trade the Nats made and if it was the only one they had made this deadline I would’ve been happy. The Nats took a random flyer on a very post-hype prospect one week into the start of the season, moved him from first to second to third base, and from strong side platoon to an everyday top of the lineup hitter, and then managed to flip him for a currently hyped left-handed starting pitcher. That’s nuts.
I think the Nats picked the right time to trade Mead, because I’m not convinced he’s really changed into the hitter this trade values him as. Mead has not made any substantial changes to his bat speed or average exit velocity, which are both below average for a major league hitter, and yet he’s slugging .640 on contact. Mead has increased his pull fly ball percentage this year, which is certainly helping that slugging number, but I don’t think he’s really a 20 home run guy.
On the plate discipline front Mead has made what at first glance seems like a great change, dropping his chase rate from 33.5 percent to 26.1 percent this year. However, he’s also dropped his in-zone swing rate from 68.7 percent to 58.4 percent. That is not the indication of a player who has learned the strike zone more, it’s just someone who has decided to stop swinging, and has not been punished by opposing pitchers enough for it yet.
This is not to say I think Mead is bad. He’s still got great contact skills and his new passive approach will give him plenty of walks. But I don’t think he can maintain the power that turns that profile into a star hitter, instead of merely a just above average one. And if you assume Mead will trend back towards the latter, his woeful defense paints a fairly limited picture. Plus the Nationals have Brady House ready to take another crack at it with his new and improved in-zone contact rate, hopefully also bringing his 2025 defense with him.
In return, the Nats got something they desperately needed, a good starting pitcher. Early is a thoroughly modern pitcher throwing six different pitches more than five percent of the time including two types of fastballs, two types of sliders, and 2025’s hottest pitch, the kick change. So far Early has used that bucket of pitches to perfectly serviceable effect, with a 89 DRA- in 111 career innings pitched. There appears to be some room to grow with Early still below the whiff and strikeout rates he was able to achieve in the minors. Either way, even if this is the best Early can do he brings needed stability in the rotation alongside Cade Cavalli as the Nats try to build a playoff-worthy rotation for next year.
Luis García Jr. to the Yankees for RHP Yovanny Cruz, RHP Ben Grable, RHP Jake Bird, and RHP Jack Cebert
I’ve already written about García and the changes he’s made this year to become one of the most unique hitters in baseball. It’s tough to see the Nats let that go, even with their sudden slide out of the playoff race. García had one more year under arbitration that the Nats could have easily afforded with their meager payroll if they wanted to go for it next year.
Overall, it seems the Nationals are convinced they can get similar results from Abimelec Ortiz and if you squint you can sort of see it. Over the last two seasons in AAA, Ortiz has paired a decent, but aggressive approach (32.7 percent chase rate) with a good in-zone contact rate and excellent exit velocity. The scary part is that he has not done a good job of turning those skills into actual production, with just a 114 wRC+ this year. That said, I think the Nats are right that Ortiz can give them close enough offensive production to what García was able to produce and with a much less unicorn like approach.
On the receiving side the Nationals went for quantity over quality here and in another excellent sign for their intentions in 2027 grabbed two pitchers who can immediately contribute to their bullpen. At 30, Bird has been around for a while and is in his fifth year in the majors, and if you’re wondering why you’ve never heard of him before, that’s because he hasn’t been very good. His career 105 ERA- contrasted by his career 96 DRA- hints as to why the Nats find him interesting and he’s managed to stick around in the majors. Like so many of the Nats recent bullpen acquisitions Bird relies heavily on his sweeper that’s also his best pitch. He does not really have a good second pitch to go with the sweeper, which limits his overall effectiveness. Still he’d rank around the 3rd or 4th best reliever the Nationals have.
Cruz is the other immediate contributor as he just earned a call up from the Yankees and instantly has the best stuff in the Nationals bullpen. Cruz gives the Nats a guy who can actually throw 100 MPH which he pairs with a wipeout slider and the occasional splitter to keep hitters honest, both grading out excellently by StuffPro in a limited sample. Once he’s ready, Cruz should slot into the closer role for the Nats going forward.
On the prospect front Cebert is another modern starting pitcher who throws three different fastballs and a variety of offspeed and breaking pitches off of those to keep hitters guessing. Grable is quick rising reliever with great fastball and lots of strikeouts. Both are still very much prospects and will need plenty of additional development and maybe an extra pitch or two, to make an impact in the majors.
Christian Franklin to the Orioles for RHP Joe Glassey
I liked Christian Franklin when the Nats acquired him at the trade deadline last year for Mike Soroka. However, in a system full of hitters with good exit velocity all learning how to hit the ball into the air to take advantage of that, Franklin sticks out like a sore thumb, with his average launch angle actually dropping from 8.8 degrees to 6.1 this year. The Nationals have a lot of young outfielders in the majors and a lot of shortstops who should probably be outfielders in the minors. The competition is fierce on the offensive side of the ball and the Nats did not have time to wait and see if Franklin would be able to figure things out. It’s best to trade him now when he’s still nominally interesting.
In return the Nats got from the Orioles (it’s still super weird the Nats can trade with the Orioles now) Glassey, another minor league reliever who racks up an absurd amount of strikeouts. Since Glassey has not made it to AAA yet and has not gotten a scouting write up before, it’s hard to say what his stuff looks like, but he appears to fit a mold for the Nats.
Foster Griffin to the Guardians for left-handers Will Dion and Josh Hartle, right-hander Kendeglys Virguez, and outfielder Nick Mitchell
This was the white flag trade of 2026. The one where the Nationals did not have an obvious replacement lined up to fill his role the rest of the way. As extension talks repeatedly hit a reported dead end it was not surprising to see the Nats pull the ripcord and deal Griffin away. It does raise a few questions though.
First, why did the Nats only sign Griffin to a one year contract? Obviously it takes two to tango and maybe Griffin was adamant about only signing for one year wherever he ended up, but the Nats really could have benefited in their planning and/or trade return if they had Griffin signed for an extra year. And with the payroll they have they could’ve easily eaten the money if Griffin did not pan out. Hell, they’re paying Trevor Williams $7 million this year to get front office members fired in a sting, they could’ve just moved that line item over to Griffin in 2027.
The second question is why didn’t the Nats try to make a trade for relief pitching earlier in July to give their team a chance to compete without getting stabbed in the back every other eighth inning? Again, this is another area where it takes two to tango and this year had noticeably fewer early trades than previous seasons. It’s possible the Nats just could not find a team willing to admit defeat in early July and trade them a solid relief pitcher. However, considering how many of their fellow third wild card competitors also sold or stood pat (the only notable acquisition being Lars Nootbar to the Diamondbacks) the playoff spot was open for claiming.
Conceding in the face of significant roster shortcomings with a plan to fix those in 2027, which Early, Bird, and Cruz all fit into, makes plenty of sense. However, it raises my final question with Griffin, did you really need to trade him if this is the return you are going to get? It’s been thoroughly covered that Griffin’s stuff, strikeout rate, and contact suggest a pitcher just hanging above average, instead of an All-Star. It’s no surprise that in this day and age the Nats got a return valuing him much closer to the former than the latter. But if you know that’s the case, is it worth holding him to see if you can squeak in a little run in 2026?
The Nationals got another solid relief pitcher with a good fastball in Dion, who slots in as their best left-handed reliever. But a relief pitcher is never going to be as valuable as a starting pitcher, no matter how much baseball front offices try. On the positive side, after having a bullpen filled with some of the worse fastballs in baseball, whose best advice was to stop throwing them, the Nats suddenly find themselves awash in good ones. The other prospects are not as close to the majors and do not rank highly, but have similarly interesting traits worthy of further exploration in the minors.
On that note, the Nationals did a great job in choosing their trading partners. There’s been a lot of talk about the drastic difference between their hitting development and their pitching development this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with having the right players to develop. The Nationals had multiple hitters that hit the ball hard, but into the ground, and multiple hitters with good contact skills who could not hit the ball hard. To the former, they taught the magic of launch angles, to the latter they taught the magic of pulling the ball. Suddenly, they could actually hit for some power.
Things are harder on the pitching side. You can only improve velocity by so much, especially with older pitchers, and in many cases that doesn’t improve the movement of the pitch enough to be helpful. The Nationals tried to compensate by having their pitchers focus on their offspeed and breaking balls more, but that approach can only get so far without an effective fastball to pair off of. It should be no surprise that the teams the Nationals hit up for a lot of pitchers, the Yankees and Guardians, are seen as two of the best organizations in baseball for developing pitchers, especially the kind of under the radar, buried depth prospects the Nats traded for. If you want to become a pitching development lab, it helps to get raw material from your fellow, established labs.
Ultimately, this trade deadline is going to be judged by how the Nats do in 2027. If they make serious investments in the rotation and infield in the offseason and head into 2027 with a roster with few or no serious question marks you start to think they made the right choice. If guys like Abrams, Wood, and Cavalli repeat their successes of 2026 I think you can call it an unequivocal win. But until then Nats fans are left with the disappointment of knowing another losing season is heading their way.
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