As the season draws to a close I figured it was time to take one last look at the young Nationals and make any updates to the status I assigned them in July (hitters and pitchers). Not everyone will appear here as I stand by most of what I said, here I will pause for a brief victory lap on Jose Ferrer, but a handful of players have either helped or hurt themselves enough to warrant a second opinion.
Prominent Role Next Year
Daylen Lile (121 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR) This likely comes as no surprise as Lile has been pretty much the only Nationals player who has done anything good since July. Baseball Prospectus’ DRC+, which measures deserved outcomes instead of actual, is still skeptical putting him at a 102 DRC+, likely due to his poor exit velocity (48th percentile in MLB). What the Nationals really need is a way to combine Lile’s pull (63rd percentile) and contact (93rd percentile) abilities with the other Nationals hitters’ power and approach. Despite the skepticism Lile has done enough to earn significant playing time to start next year and hopefully can use the offseason to figure out his putrid defense so he has a chance to stick around.
Clayton Beeter (66 ERA-, 68 FIP-) and PJ Poulin (50 ERA-, 84 FIP-) Finally the Nats have some other relief pitchers and I can feel justified in saying they don’t need to keep guys like Cole Henry around next year to hold a spot. I just wrote about these two, so there’s nothing more to say for now.
Drew Millas (125 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR) See the Riley Adams argument from July but for someone who has a DRC+ that’s nearly league average (97) and can actually play the position (1.0 Catcher Defensive Runs Added). Granted those offensive numbers come in just 55 plate appearances so they should be taken with a huge grain of salt, especially considering he has some of the worst exit velocity in baseball (12th percentile). Still considering what the Nats are working with here he’s clearly the best they’ve got.
Cade Cavalli (112 ERA-, 116 FIP-) After giving up just 3 runs in 13 innings in back-to-back wins against the NL East-winning Phillies it looked like Cavalli was ready to become a reliable member of the rotation for years to come. He then followed that up by giving up 8 runs in 2.1 innings to the Yankees, so things are still a work in progress. Despite his elite velocity, an average vertical approach angle means his best pitch is actually his devastating knucklecurve which grades out at -1 runs by both StuffPro and PitchPro. The good thing is Cavalli knows this, throwing his curveball at the same rate as his fastball. Considering the dumpster fire that is the rest of this rotation, Cavalli easily sails into a role next year on the back of having one pitch that’s any good.
We Might Have a Spot for You
Luis García Jr. (91 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR) It’s not García’s fault he’s dropped a level, his numbers have not changed from July. The problem is that with the emergence of Lile the Nats have another good hitter who cannot play defense to go with James Wood and CJ Abrams. With first base and DH open next year it’s possible that García can emerge from the positional shuffle with a starting role, but at this point it feels just as likely the Nats try to find more players who can actually play defense.
Brady House (57 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR) House’s power (75th percentile) and approach (89th percentile SEAGER), still keep me as a believer, but he has to figure out a way to actually make contact with the ball. House is sitting in the 23rd percentile in in-zone contact rate, right next to fellow power first, contact last Nats star James Wood. The problem for House is that he is not pairing that with an all-star first half that showed he can hit MLB pitching sometimes. On top of that, the defense has been fine, but not quite as elite as it appeared to be when he first came up. I think he still fits into the Nationals’ future plans, but barring a surprise hot streak this week I no longer think he’s being handed the role.
Jacob Young (65 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR) It’s hard to know what to do with Jacob Young. At a glance the starting outfield seems set with Wood, Crews and Lile, however that would probably be the worst defensive outfield of all time. Young is still excellent on defense, but will the Nationals really keep that bat in their lineup every day just to paper over some defensive deficiencies? Like García his role is going to depend a lot on what positions the prominent guys end up at and how much the Nats are willing to spend this offseason. In any case Young is probably going to stick around at least as the 4th/5th outfielder.
Happy Trails
Jake Irvin (136 ERA-, 135 FIP-) and Mitchell Parker (138 ERA-, 121 FIP-) The emergence of Cavalli and the baffling steadiness of Brad Lord combined with MacKenzie Gore means the Nats have enough of a rotation to no longer require the services of the two worst pitchers in baseball. RIP Nationals Pitching Development Lab 2024-2024.
Riley Adams (61 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR) Adams had a hot month that at least got him on the radar and it’s not hard to make an argument to choose him over Millas. However, I’m going to reverse my previous stance and go with the guy who can play catcher over the guy who can hit the ball hard. What is clear is that the Nats need to find a starting catcher somewhere else.
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